Here at Stone Pine, when inflation rises, one question we often hear from retirees is:
“Should I own gold?”
After all, gold has long been viewed as protection against inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical conflict.
And while gold has had periods of strong performance, history suggests there may be a better question to ask:
What has historically been the most reliable way to outpace inflation over a long retirement?
At Stone Pine, we believe successful retirement investing comes down to balancing the right amount of growth and safety.
You need enough growth to help your portfolio outpace inflation over what may be a 25 to 35-year retirement.
And you need enough safety, through short-term bonds and cash reserves, to help avoid selling stocks during difficult markets.
That distinction matters when evaluating investments like gold.
Stocks Have Historically Outpaced Inflation
A recent study looked at the years from 1928–2025 when inflation was above its historical median.
Even during these higher inflation periods, stocks continued to deliver positive real returns, meaning returns after inflation.
Source: Stone Pine analysis using historical market data from NYU Stern (Aswath Damodaran) and U.S. CPI inflation data. Inflation framework based on Dimensional Fund Advisors’ analysis of higher inflation years (1928–2025).
The results are compelling.
Stocks outperformed gold on average during higher inflation years. And when we dig deeper into the data, the difference becomes even more pronounced.
Gold’s median real return during higher inflation years was actually negative, largely because of much greater variability in returns. A handful of exceptionally strong periods, particularly during the inflation shocks of the 1970s, helped lift gold’s average return.
For retirees taking withdrawals from portfolios, that consistency matters.
Retirement investing is not simply about maximizing returns in isolated years. It is about creating a portfolio designed to produce repeatable outcomes across many different market environments.
Markets Do Not Always Behave the Way We Expect
One of the challenges with investing based on narratives is that reality does not always cooperate.
Many investors understandably assume gold will rise during periods of geopolitical stress or uncertainty.
Yet recent market events provide a useful reminder that markets rarely move in perfectly predictable ways.
Following the onset of conflict involving Iran earlier this year, gold pulled back from earlier highs while the stock market recovered and moved higher.
Source: Stone Pine analysis using SPY and GLD historical market data. Performance shown from February 28, 2026 through June 2, 2026.
The lesson?
Trying to predict which investment will benefit most from the next crisis is extremely difficult.
The Retirement Investing Takeaway
For retirees, we believe the answer is not chasing whichever investment feels safest in the moment.
Instead, it is building a portfolio with the right balance of:
Growth
A diversified portfolio of global stocks designed to help outpace inflation over time.
Safety
Short-term bonds and cash reserves designed to provide stability and spending flexibility during market downturns.
Inflation is real.
Market uncertainty is real.
But history suggests that maintaining the right balance between growth and safety has been a more dependable long-term approach than trying to predict which investment may benefit from the next inflation scare or geopolitical event.
For retirees, successful investing is not about chasing headlines. It is about building a portfolio designed to support decades of spending through many different market environments.
